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The luxury watch market in free fall: Rolex and Patek Philippe in turmoil!

The secondary market for luxury watches has been in a significant decline over the past two years. Prices for the most sought-after models from Rolex and Patek Philippe have collapsed, while investors have turned to other, more lucrative markets. The trend marks the end of a post-pandemic boom for high-end watchmaking.

A steep fall in prices

The Bloomberg Subdial Watch Index, which tracks the 50 most traded watches, reveals some alarming figures:

  • 1% drop in June 2024
  • 8% drop over one year
  • 23% collapse over two years
  • The data contrasts sharply with the S&P 500's 27% gain over the same period, highlighting the disconnect between the luxury watch market and overall stock market performance.

    The end of post-pandemic euphoria

    The Swiss luxury watch industry is going through a difficult period after experiencing historic highs:

  • Early 2022: Peak prices on the secondary market
  • 12 months to June 2022: Bloomberg Subdial Watch Index up 40%
  • The reasons for this bubble:โ€“ Confined consumers investing their savings in expensive watchesโ€“ Speculation on the continued rise in prices

    Major Swiss brands face the crisis

    The Swiss watchmaking giants are particularly affected:

  • Rolex
  • Patek Philippe
  • Audemars Piguet
  • These prestigious brands, which had seen their prices soar, are now facing a brutal market correction. Although many models are still trading above their retail price, the trend is clearly downward.

    Cartier: The exception that proves the rule

    Against all expectations, some brands are standing out:

  • Cartier Watch Price Index Subdial: +2% over one year
  • Growing popularity among collectors
  • More accessible price positioning than Rolex, Patek or Audemars Piguet
  • This performance by Cartier demonstrates that the market remains dynamic for brands offering better value for money.

    A market in full restructuring

    June 2024 revealed contrasting trends:

  • Rolex: Relative price stability
  • Tudor (Rolex sister brand): Price drop
  • Omega and Cartier (Swatch Group AG): Slight price increase
  • These moves suggest a reshuffling of the cards in the luxury watch market, with growing interest in brands offering better value for money.

    The fall in prices of luxury watches on the secondary market marks the end of a speculative era for high-end watchmaking. This brutal correction is forcing investors and collectors to rethink their strategies. For lovers of fine mechanics, this period could offer opportunities to acquire coveted pieces at more reasonable prices. Nevertheless, the major watchmaking houses will have to adapt to this new market reality to maintain their appeal to an increasingly informed and demanding clientele.

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