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HomeNewswhy North Korea's involvement raises fears of an escalation with South Korea

why North Korea’s involvement raises fears of an escalation with South Korea

The diplomatic ballet began several days ago. With a telephone conversation between the presidents of Ukraine and that of South Korea on Tuesday. Then a visit by the head of North Korean diplomacy to Moscow on Wednesday. It continues this Thursday, October 31 with a meeting in โ€œ2+2 formatโ€ in Washington: on one side the American Secretary of State Antony Blinken and the Minister of Defense Lloyd Austin, on the other their South Korean counterparts . On the menu of all these discussions: North Korea’s decision to send soldiers to Ukraine, and the fear of an escalation of tensions in the Asia-Pacific.

According to the Pentagon, 10,000 North Korean soldiers are currently in the Russian region of Kursk, which borders Ukraine. An additional 2,000 troops are expected to join them to support Moscow’s troops. Videos, broadcast by kyiv and shared below by the American channel CNNshow uniformed soldiers lining up to receive equipment at a Russian training camp.

โ€œItโ€™s the nightmare scenarioreacts Thรฉo Clรฉment, researcher and consultant, joined by HuffPost. The fact that North Korea sold or exchanged munitions with Russia was not surprising. But this situation is of another magnitude in terms of political cooperation. ยป

Especially since it occurs in a context โ€œhistoricalโ€according to this North Korea specialist. At the end of December 2023, Pyongyang put an end to a founding policy of its regime since 1948, which โ€œmade the reunification of the peninsula one of the most important axes of its foreign policyโ€. All communications with the South were stopped. The blasting, in mid-October, of roads and railways linking the two countries โ€œis part of this policy aimed at โ€“ literally โ€“ cutting ties with the Southโ€.

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A โ€œdress rehearsalโ€ before the confrontation with the South?

On the war front, it is difficult to predict the impact that the several thousand North Korean soldiers will have. They shouldn’t do โ€œa big difference from an operational point of viewโ€, estimates Marie Dumoulin, from the ECFR (European Council on International Relations) think tank, interviewed by AFP. In communications revealed by the media, Russian soldiers even question โ€œwhat[ils] will be able to do wellโ€ of these North Korean recruits without field experience.

However, the maneuver is closely scrutinized by South Korea. President Yoon Suk Yeol expressed his โ€œserious concernโ€ faced with the intentions of its neighbor, with whom it is still theoretically at war – no peace treaty having been signed after the cessation of hostilities and the armistice of 1953. โ€œThe fact that the North is gaining combat experience in the Russian-Ukrainian conflictโ€for the first time since the Korean War in the early 1950s, creates โ€œa serious risk to South Koreaโ€™s national securityโ€worried the head of state.

โ€œCertain elements may suggest a dress rehearsal before a clash with South Koreaโ€analyzes Thรฉo Clรฉment. Kim Jong Un’s army, which has no experience in modern warfare, could be โ€œin contact with European or American equipment circulating on the Ukrainian frontโ€which represents a โ€œsource of informationโ€. Beyond the military aspect, cooperation with Russia allows North Korea โ€œto escape the sanctions regimeโ€by obtaining โ€œfinancial, technical, technological resources, or raw materials such as oilโ€.

An imbalance throughout the region

For its part, Seoul traditionally follows a policy of not supplying weapons to active conflict zones. But in reality, this major arms exporter delivers to allies of kyiv who themselves supply the Ukrainian army. For example, he sold billions of dollars worth of tanks, planes and rocket launchers to Poland. Which makes Ramon Pacheco Pardo, professor at King’s College London, say that the two Koreas are engaged in a โ€œproxy warโ€. โ€œThe South already indirectly supports Ukraine militarily and the North supplies Russia directly. North and South obtain valuable information from this war ยปhe explains to Guardian.

The South Korean president has announced that he wants to study the possibility of changing his policy to send weapons to Ukraine. โ€œBut we will have to succeed in getting the message across to the South Korean publicโ€ who is mostly opposed to it, according to Thรฉo Clรฉment. This might also require โ€œconstitutional changesโ€notes Euan Graham, of the Australian Institute of Political Strategy, to the Guardian.

Beyond a North-South conflict, the situation raises fears of an imbalance in the entire region. โ€œEveryone is very worried to see North Korea engaging in this kind of adventurismnotes Thรฉo Clรฉment. But no one is more so than China. ยป How will Beijing, an essential supporter of the North Korean regime, which it considers its pawn in the region, view this partnership between Moscow and Pyongyang? โ€œShe will have to find a balance in a quadrangular game with Russia, the West and North Koreaโ€estimates the specialist.

For Thรฉo Clรฉment, โ€œmany European states acted as if this country was not their problem.โ€ Gold, โ€œThere is a parallel universe in which this could have been avoided, if we had succeeded in establishing sincere cooperative relations with North Korea. By now, North Korea could have been exporting wheat rather than men.”.