The diplomatic ballet began several days ago. With a telephone conversation between the presidents of Ukraine and that of South Korea on Tuesday. Then a visit by the head of North Korean diplomacy to Moscow on Wednesday. It continues this Thursday, October 31 with a meeting in โ2+2 formatโ in Washington: on one side the American Secretary of State Antony Blinken and the Minister of Defense Lloyd Austin, on the other their South Korean counterparts . On the menu of all these discussions: North Korea’s decision to send soldiers to Ukraine, and the fear of an escalation of tensions in the Asia-Pacific.
According to the Pentagon, 10,000 North Korean soldiers are currently in the Russian region of Kursk, which borders Ukraine. An additional 2,000 troops are expected to join them to support Moscow’s troops. Videos, broadcast by kyiv and shared below by the American channel CNNshow uniformed soldiers lining up to receive equipment at a Russian training camp.
โItโs the nightmare scenarioreacts Thรฉo Clรฉment, researcher and consultant, joined by HuffPost. The fact that North Korea sold or exchanged munitions with Russia was not surprising. But this situation is of another magnitude in terms of political cooperation. ยป
Especially since it occurs in a context โhistoricalโaccording to this North Korea specialist. At the end of December 2023, Pyongyang put an end to a founding policy of its regime since 1948, which โmade the reunification of the peninsula one of the most important axes of its foreign policyโ. All communications with the South were stopped. The blasting, in mid-October, of roads and railways linking the two countries โis part of this policy aimed at โ literally โ cutting ties with the Southโ.
Reading this content may result in cookies being placed by the third-party operator who hosts it. Taking into account the choices you have expressed regarding the deposit of cookies, we have blocked the display of this content. If you wish to access it, you must accept the โThird Party Contentโ category of cookies by clicking on the button below.
A โdress rehearsalโ before the confrontation with the South?
On the war front, it is difficult to predict the impact that the several thousand North Korean soldiers will have. They shouldn’t do โa big difference from an operational point of viewโ, estimates Marie Dumoulin, from the ECFR (European Council on International Relations) think tank, interviewed by AFP. In communications revealed by the media, Russian soldiers even question โwhat[ils] will be able to do wellโ of these North Korean recruits without field experience.
However, the maneuver is closely scrutinized by South Korea. President Yoon Suk Yeol expressed his โserious concernโ faced with the intentions of its neighbor, with whom it is still theoretically at war – no peace treaty having been signed after the cessation of hostilities and the armistice of 1953. โThe fact that the North is gaining combat experience in the Russian-Ukrainian conflictโfor the first time since the Korean War in the early 1950s, creates โa serious risk to South Koreaโs national securityโworried the head of state.
โCertain elements may suggest a dress rehearsal before a clash with South Koreaโanalyzes Thรฉo Clรฉment. Kim Jong Un’s army, which has no experience in modern warfare, could be โin contact with European or American equipment circulating on the Ukrainian frontโwhich represents a โsource of informationโ. Beyond the military aspect, cooperation with Russia allows North Korea โto escape the sanctions regimeโby obtaining โfinancial, technical, technological resources, or raw materials such as oilโ.
An imbalance throughout the region
For its part, Seoul traditionally follows a policy of not supplying weapons to active conflict zones. But in reality, this major arms exporter delivers to allies of kyiv who themselves supply the Ukrainian army. For example, he sold billions of dollars worth of tanks, planes and rocket launchers to Poland. Which makes Ramon Pacheco Pardo, professor at King’s College London, say that the two Koreas are engaged in a โproxy warโ. โThe South already indirectly supports Ukraine militarily and the North supplies Russia directly. North and South obtain valuable information from this war ยปhe explains to Guardian.
The South Korean president has announced that he wants to study the possibility of changing his policy to send weapons to Ukraine. โBut we will have to succeed in getting the message across to the South Korean publicโ who is mostly opposed to it, according to Thรฉo Clรฉment. This might also require โconstitutional changesโnotes Euan Graham, of the Australian Institute of Political Strategy, to the Guardian.
Beyond a North-South conflict, the situation raises fears of an imbalance in the entire region. โEveryone is very worried to see North Korea engaging in this kind of adventurismnotes Thรฉo Clรฉment. But no one is more so than China. ยป How will Beijing, an essential supporter of the North Korean regime, which it considers its pawn in the region, view this partnership between Moscow and Pyongyang? โShe will have to find a balance in a quadrangular game with Russia, the West and North Koreaโestimates the specialist.
For Thรฉo Clรฉment, โmany European states acted as if this country was not their problem.โ Gold, โThere is a parallel universe in which this could have been avoided, if we had succeeded in establishing sincere cooperative relations with North Korea. By now, North Korea could have been exporting wheat rather than men.”.